On adaptation in industry with solar energy
Imagine that view in economics today that considers the cost of energy as the determinant of profit, after operating cost are normalised, as true enough, that is for the perception of our society. Which means that how expensive the energy we use determines our future and the ability to efficiently produce, makes what we need affordable. Then, following this view, the cost of energy is what makes a good investment for a company. That is a simplification, but true enough in practice, energy is the major cost, and the efficiency of producing determines energy demand. The relationship between energy cost and difficulty of producing is the indicator of production efficiency and thereby contributes to wealth, increase or decline.
Massive energy is now required to produce, because the low hanging fruits are already picked. This is making more pollution in the atmosphere of this planet, more than enough. When coal is gone it will be better. When energy is produced by solar cells. Then we must plan with the weather that is changing. Cloud cover increases and decreases and temperature follows both the cloud and the emission. It is a predictable phenomenon that society needs to understand.
Which until this period started one may assume was not the case. The current situation is a major change. A worker traditionally cared little about weather, unless when an extreme event was predicted, like a flood or typhon. The worker until now had no commercial reason for intimate knowledge of normal weather, because it did not affect production. Now it does again like it did for our ancestors.
A modern industrial worker did not worry how heavy the cloud cover, or measure the temperature, the two key parameters for calculating solar energy. Productivity was independent. The weather was not important when deciding on the next production run. That is because energy was drawn consistently from the electricity grid, price varied because of demand, not the cost of generating from coal or diesel or gas generators. A solar dominated grid has different characteristics and returns society to preindustrial power.
Now that might be why so many feel threatened. We do not control solar energy, the fastest growing energy source for the electricity grid. One now must be into the weather and how it will be affected by climate change, weather that varies greatly, in seasonal and longer-term oscillatory patterns, amplified by the oceans rejection of heat. In general wet regions will become wetter and dry regions dryer as temperatures rise. However, because more clouds in the sky drops the temperature, thereby improving solar cell efficiency and, the reverse, less clouds do the opposite, the changing climate may have little adverse effect on solar power. A deeper understanding is required to reveal solar potential when the climate changes.
While there is no doubt that the Government sponsored energy transition will continue and accelerate as climate change deepens and have a broad impact. Which means we must find tools, adapt to this change and embrace the challenge of the future. However, it is unclear what new production methods will emerge for solar energy. It is a new way of doing business. More research is required to understand how to change production. For this new energy source. More investigation will deliver suitable operational strategies, because energy sources like solar behave so very differently, to those which workers are familiar.
Recent developments in machine learning mean that only now accurate prediction of solar energy potential are possible and while more research is required, the clear sky irradiation on the earth can be calculated using software, depending only on the time of year, latitude and altitude, minimal in the early morning and peaking at noon and non-existent during the night, clear sky values are predictable. In contrast, the challenge is modelling stochastic process, knowing how much radiation is transmitted through the cloud cover is difficult and requires advanced algorithms to predict. To further challenge, climate change adds a layer of complexity, operating over longer cycles, like the seven year El Nino, La Nina in the pacific, that dramatically effects solar energy potential and require statistical techniques to predict.
Which means a sophisticated new approach with unfamiliar technology for production. In this approach, we apply innovative technology and in the simplest terms possible. However, accuracy is essential, broadly based averaging techniques mislead. An accurate solar energy prediction model is required to forecast how production may manifest, including a forecast of energy demand. To add to the complexity when determining available solar energy there are anthropologically produced particles, that are more significant in heavily populated regions, particularly in East Asia where the effect of aerosols (pollutants) on solar transmittance should be considered.
In some regions, particularly the equatorial pacific over the last twenty years there has been an significant increase in cloud cover brought on by the rising temperature and while that is expected to continue, fortunately the decrease in momentary temperature under cloud improves efficiency that maintains solar plant performance in this region. The only effect that will be seen is when defective solar cell numbers rise in the humidity and by the increasing numbers of lightning storms, that are predicted that will damage solar cells.
While we are describing a new discipline for industry, there is a long history of dependence on the weather for a farmer planning production. A farmer knows why production is good some years and less so during others. Optimum production follows rain and sunshine. This is a fact of life in agriculture. And their business (agribusiness) use climactic indices to manage production potential.
The case for adopting a similar approach in industry is supported by farmers long-term success. While for the last few hundred years industrial production has relied on manmade energy. Now solar energy will make an industrialist more like a farmer, and like the farmer, will benefit from climatic production indicators. As an aid to planning during the energy transition motivated by environmental concerns, to find cost savings while reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Solar energy, in particular, has the potential to make operations more sustainable and reduce carbon footprint. And that is what everyone wants.